For all the talk about a “resilient consumer,” it’s worth asking: Which consumer are we talking about here?

Because the economy is splintering in different directions right now, framing it as a cohesive narrative is misleading. Higher-income households (roughly $125K+) are still spending at a solid clip, while everyone else is noticeably more constrained. Since 2023, real spending from higher earners has climbed about 7.6%, compared to roughly 3% for middle-income households (~$40K–$125K) and just over 1% for lower-income groups (under ~$40K) — meaning most of the growth is coming from the top.

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York | Chart: Axios

It’s a pretty ironic dichotomy, because on the surface, it looks like: Spending remains surprisingly stable. The labor market continues to hold together. Stocks are ripping through all-time highs after a brutal March selloff.

Meanwhile, other signals beneath the surface also look unhealthy. The personal savings rate has continued falling, dropping to roughly 3.6% in March, down sharply from levels above 6% just a couple of years ago. Credit card APRs also remain near record highs, with many borrowers now facing rates above ~22%. Household debt levels continue to climb, though recent New York Fed data suggest the pressure remains unevenly distributed rather than universally deteriorating.

Housing continues to reinforce the same divide. Mortgage rates moved back toward the mid-6% range this week, once again freezing many middle-income buyers out of the market while wealthier households and existing homeowners remain relatively insulated. Increasingly, homeownership itself feels less like a normal financial milestone and more like a privilege reserved for consumers who either bought earlier, earn substantially more, or already possess significant assets.

And let’s not overlook this: a Wall Street Journal report last week found that the number of Americans with “super-prime” credit scores above 780 has increased by roughly 15 million over the last six years. But on the flip side of that: Credit-card debt has climbed to a record $1.3 trillion, delinquencies are rising to levels we haven’t seen in over a decade, and lenders are increasingly reserving larger credit lines and premium products for already high-credit consumers.

The result of these splintering narratives is an economy that still functions in aggregate but increasingly feels divided beneath the surface. Some households continue to spend, invest, travel, and benefit from rising asset prices. Others are adapting to a reality defined by high borrowing costs, declining affordability, lower savings, and constant financial unpredictability. The economy may still be growing overall. But the experience of participating in it is becoming increasingly unequal.